In recent years, global polyvinyl alcohol (PVA) production capacity has steadily increased. In 2016, the total global PVA production capacity reached 2.08 million tons.
my country's PVA production has also developed steadily. Especially with the implementation of the national strategy to strongly support the western region, the Northwest and Southwest regions have become hotbeds for PVA investment. Sichuan, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and other regions, leveraging their advantageous conditions, have vigorously developed calcium carbide and its downstream industrial chain, becoming concentrated growth areas for PVA production capacity.
Development Trends: National Conditions Determine Production Technology In the future, global PVA production technology will still primarily rely on the ethylene process and the acetylene process. Foreign producers will continue to focus on the ethylene process, while the acetylene process will remain dominant in mainland China. Because PVA products have various grades depending on their degree of polymerization and degree of alcoholysis, their main application areas also differ.
Overall, the future development trend of the polyvinyl alcohol (PVA) industry is twofold: firstly, towards high-polymerization-degree (high viscosity) and high-hydrolysis-degree refined products, which perform well in high-grade adhesives, high-strength and high-modulus fibers, and cement reinforcing agents; secondly, towards low-polymerization-degree, partially hydrolyzed, or low-hydrolysis-degree specialty high-value-added products in fields with special application requirements, such as water-soluble adhesives, water-soluble fibers, polymerization aids, medical, and electronics. Simultaneously, with the increasing domestic and export demand for high-density, high-grade textiles, and the rapid rise in demand for automotive and architectural safety glass, there will be significant market potential in PVB films, biodegradable PVA films, and the medical and pharmaceutical fields. In the future, with the continuous development of new polymerization, hydrolysis, and modification technologies for PVA, not only will production costs be reduced and product quality improved, but favorable conditions will also be provided for the large-scale production of different varieties of PVA.
Looking at the global PVA market changes, the production capacity of other countries or regions will not change significantly in the future, and new production capacity will continue to come from mainland China. In the next few years, my country's PVA production capacity will continue to grow. The planned new or expanded production facilities include: Inner Mongolia Wuhai Haixin Environmental Protection Materials Technology Co., Ltd.'s 90,000-ton capacity expansion project; Inner Mongolia Century Hengrun Chemical Co., Ltd.'s 200,000-ton new project; Xinjiang Nangang Investment Co., Ltd.'s 100,000-ton new project; Anhui Wanwei Group Co., Ltd.'s 100,000-ton new project in Chaohu, Anhui; Xinjiang Qingsong Weilun Chemical Co., Ltd.'s (jointly funded by Xinjiang Qingsong Building Materials Chemical (Group) Co., Ltd., Xinjiang Alar Lanbo Investment Co., Ltd., and Chongqing Hanma Chemical Technology Co., Ltd.) 150,000-ton new project in Alar No. 2 Industrial Park, Xinjiang; Ningxia Baota United Chemical Co., Ltd.'s 100,000-ton new project; and Ningxia Dadi Chemical Co., Ltd.'s Phase III 100,000-ton capacity project, etc.
However, most of these facilities are currently in the planning or design stage. Few projects are actually implemented as planned. Combined with the current shutdowns and closures, it is estimated that by 2020, my country's total polyvinyl alcohol production capacity will remain at around 1.6-1.7 million tons, with the western region remaining the main supplier of polyvinyl alcohol in my country. Currently, my country's polyvinyl alcohol (PVA) products are mainly conventional, while higher value-added products such as high-viscosity, high-hydrolyzability products and low-viscosity, low-hydrolyzability products are primarily imported. This necessitates that PVA producers pursue differentiated, high-end product development to improve efficiency, and gradually expand into international markets.
In terms of consumption structure, as the non-fiber applications of PVA continue to expand, my country's consumption of PVA for vinylon fibers will decrease, while the proportion of non-fiber applications will increase.
With increasing production capacity, while consumption growth lags behind capacity growth, industry competition is intensifying, leading to the closure or shutdown of some smaller, outdated production facilities.
Currently, my country widely uses the calcium carbide-acetylene process for PVA production. Although this process is energy-intensive, polluting, and costly, it suits my country's national conditions and will continue to exist for some time.
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